As for applications, SMS messaging--the 160-character instant messages the Euro kids are all nuts over--will never be nearly as big here. Why? Because most Americans already have other ways to access the Net; Europeans rely more on their wireless devices because home Internet penetration there lags behind the U.S.

Yes, some of us will buy camera-equipped wireless devices. But we'll use those cameras mainly to augment messages--"Honey, is this (SNAP!) the brand of detergent I am supposed to buy?"--not to document our vacations or capture those Kodak moments.

That said, multimedia won't really be anything more than a curiosity until data rates are routinely 150kbps or more. Today we are lucky to get 50kbps sustained.

I'm already really big on location-based services, in which the network knows where you are and can thus present location-specific information--traffic reports, restaurant reviews, movie listings, directions, nearby friends--to you. But there will also be commercial applications, such as merchants hawking you just before you drive by with special deals just for you and only valid right now. Would this be progress?

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I wouldn't be surprised to see a third-party market for wireless/handheld applications--meaning we could purchase apps from companies other than those that provide our wireless devices or services. It's also possible--at least if Microsoft has anything to say about it--that phones will be viewed more as applications platforms (like PCs) than as devices held captive by the carriers.

Sift all those factors together, and a few players emerge as likely winners in the handheld/wireless wars: Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, Sony (in PDAs), maybe Handspring or Palm, even Dell. Looking less winner-ish: Ericsson, Motorola, Sanyo, Sony (in phones), and T-Mobile.

My most useful wireless devices, now and into the foreseeable future: whatever standard cellular phone I happen to be using this week and a BlackBerry. Coming up fast (and notwithstanding all that stuff up there about task-specific devices being superior): the Treo 300.

That's how I see the handheld/wireless market shaking out for the foreseeable future (i.e., the next 24 to 48 months). But this segment of the market is tougher to call than any other. There are too many variables still swirling around in the mix. I feel confident about the many devices/one service model. After that, your guess is as good as mine.

Do you think a single handheld device can ever fulfill all the needs of a mobile enterprise staff? TalkBack below or e-mail us with your thoughts.

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