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| Tech Update Networking Upgrades |
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All-in-one handhelds will never catch on
By David Coursey
AnchorDesk
November 14, 2002
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The conventional wisdom--or perhaps it's the wireless industry's common prayer--is that messaging and multimedia will be the Next Big Thing in wireless. After all, Swedish kids spend almost their entire allowances sending short text messages to one another and the Japanese are gaga sending each other pictures they've taken with their cell phones. Or so we are told.
It's supposed to follow that American teens will do the same, using their phones for what amounts to expensive instant messaging, and that parents will start capturing their Kodak moments on a phone for immediate dispatch to relatives.
I hate to break it to the wonderful folks in the wireless industry, but I think both scenarios are bunk. Based on my recent discussions (on my radio program and off) with folks who know a lot about this stuff, as well as on my own gut instincts, here's what I think will really be the Next Big Things in wireless.
We'll continue to carry around multiple wireless devices--a phone, a PDA, and maybe something else, perhaps all sharing a single phone number. This is because voice and data really aren't interchangeable. The trick is making sure those separate devices communicate well with each other. Bluetooth could be the glue that binds your personal area network together.
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phone number. This is because voice and data really aren't interchangeable. The trick is making sure those separate devices communicate well with each other. Bluetooth could be the glue that binds your personal area network together.
That said, I expect to see lots of innovative device designs--most of which won't catch on--over the next couple of years. As the wireless hardware industry begins to consolidate, it will be fun to see what kinds of products both innovation and desperation produce.
Palm and Pocket PC will end up with about equal shares of the wireless PDA market. Microsoft's Smartphone platform will challenge, well, everybody in the cell phone market, unless Nokia and others are able to isolate Microsoft really quickly.
We'll actually be able to afford multiple devices because all of our airtime and wireless data will come from a single pool of minutes and megabytes. Or maybe it will be all-we-can-eat data priced according to each device's input method--an effective governor on the amount of data a user is likely to consume; there may be limits, but you and I will never reach them.
Device prices will have to come down if wireless PDAs are to ever catch on. And, no, I don't think the Danger Hiptop/T-Mobile Sidekick device will be a success, at any price.
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