Recently, Microsoft announced its Windows XP Tablet PC edition for mobile computers (shipping 2H02), supporting a behind-the-screen digitizer from Wacom that enables handwriting for notation and recognition by using a special stylus, as well as voice input/output/recognition capability. Concurrent with its announcement, several vendors (e.g., Acer, HP, Motion, Fujitsu, and ViewSonic) announced they would provide hardware to take advantage of the new OS. We believe Microsoft's move to enable richer data types (e.g., "ink" and voice) within its OS and productivity applications (e.g., Outlook, Word, PowerPoint, and Excel) will ultimately result in a better user experience and a more natural user interface, but it will take several iterations of the product to get it all right (both in software and hardware). We do not expect this new OS paradigm to have a major impact for three to four years in enterprises, except in some specialized vertical implementations (e.g., forms-based systems, such as sales, ERP, and medical) or within the "executive toy" marketplace.
Indeed, with 2-plus-year notebook life cycles and tight spending, we do not expect large enterprise migrations before the end of the useful life of currently deployed standard notebook computers. Further, it will take two to three years before many applications are upgraded to enable interfacing with these richer data types (indeed, even MS Office will not be fully integrated with the new data types for six to nine months). However, some character-based writing systems that are difficult to enter via keyboard (e.g., kanji) may benefit from a more natural input capability provided by character recognition and, consequently, acceptance in China, Japan, etc., may be more rapid.
Microsoft faces two key challenges to success: making hardware acceptable to the user, and finding the right software interactions to make this a superior end-user experience.
Hardware
Several vendors have tried to develop tablet PCs in the past, with limited success. Indeed, IBM TransNote--arguably the best device to date--was recently discontinued due to lack of sales. New devices due in late 2002 will have two primary form factors: convertibles (e.g., notebooks with rotatable screens that collapse to cover the keyboard), and pure tablets (e.g., devices without keyboards that have a pure tablet approach). We believe the ergonomics of the form factor, and the reliability required for a highly mobile device, will ultimately affect the acceptance of tablets. We do not expect an immediate wide-scale replacement of notebooks with tablets. Rather, we expect it to take at least two to three generations for vendors to achieve market acceptance, with the right balance of features/functions, form factor, weight, battery life, and user reliability. Therefore, we believe most enterprises should wait at least two to three years before mainstreaming these devices.
Software
A key factor in the success of the new product will be how well Microsoft is able to integrate the new interface technologies and data types with applications, and how easy Microsoft makes it for third-party providers to enable their applications with the richer data types. Initial introduction will include new productivity applications (e.g., journal, which emulates a paper-based notebook, but with features such as indexing and handwriting recognition/conversation). Also available are inking capabilities for Outlook (enabling the e-mailing of handwritten messages), and the annotation of Word and Excel documents. However, full integration with Office will not be available until 2003, at which time Office documents will fully support inking as a data type.
Microsoft will enable its development environment (Visual Studio .Net) and .Net Framework to encompass these richer data types, making it attractive for third-party vendors to enable their applications. However, we expect this to take at least one to two years for enterprise-level applications.
We also expect Microsoft and third-party software providers to ultimately perfect their implementations of these new interface and rich data types. Similarly, we believe hardware manufacturers will improve their systems, bring out ruggedized versions suitable for plant floor and other hostile environments, and drive down costs. We also believe that, although Microsoft intends to maintain a special version of XP just for tablets for now, eventually it will migrate these new interfaces to its mainstream desktop/laptop operating system, providing the new capabilities to the vast majority of employees and home users.
Business impact
Richer data types can make users more efficient at certain tasks (e.g., note taking and forms-based activities), driving down costs and improving ROI.
Bottom line
Although the first-generation implementations of the new tablet technologies may not be ready for prime time when they are released in 4Q02, enterprises should start thinking about how this new technology combination will impact how people work and how/which applications can be enabled to increase efficiency.
Microsoft's Tablet PC
First published September 25, 2002
By Jack Gold
Will you consider Tablet PCs for your company's mobile workforce? TalkBack below or e-mail us with your thoughts.
