Broad support for Web services and early efforts to ensure interoperability across Web service implementations (i.e., http://www.ws-i.org) enables organizations to use a mixed development platform of both Java 2 Enterprise Edition (J2EE) and Microsoft .Net.
However, it is important to use these technologies in an organized fashion to maximize reuse, developer efficiency, and performance. Our research finds that most organizations will have fairly even spending between these two platforms by 2004. This represents a shift from previous strategies, which have focused on moving exclusively to J2EE. We believe this is being driven by the productivity of Microsoft's development environments, quality of the overall frameworks, and the continuing need to integrate efficiently with client devices. As this growth occurs for Microsoft, Java vendors will battle to create compelling offerings and those that lead with strong Web service and integration support (e.g., IBM, BEA, Sun) will survive.
During 2002, most organizations with existing Visual Basic 6 (VB 6) and Active Server Page (ASP) applications will begin pilots to assess the advantages and costs of moving to .Net. Although several early adopters have begun deploying applications, we do not expect widespread deployment until the fourth quarter of 2002. In addition, many organizations (challenged by the move to J2EE from VB 6 and other client/server tools) will face developer pressure to move back to the Microsoft platform. Continuing corporate focus on productivity and ROI will strengthen Microsoft's case of low-cost and high-productivity through 2003, and result in a growing number of .Net deployments. Each of the large platform vendors, working from current areas of market strength (e.g., BEA, Microsoft, IBM, SAP, Oracle, and Sun), will seek to tell the most compelling story by building the most complete and integrated offering. The battle for n-tier platform share will drive continued integration of services (e.g., integration, portals, and transactions) with application server/operating system supported by integrated development suites (e.g., Sun's SunONE and IBM's WebSphere suites) during 2003-05.
As enterprises evaluate these competing platforms they should first closely evaluate each platform's strengths and weaknesses in an organizational context. This means realistically measuring the need for specific functionality, existing skills and culture, and the role of custom applications. The larger an organization is, the more likely it will require support for both technologies. In addition, we see most application projects now focusing on integration and repurposing of existing systems, and not creating massive amounts of new business logic components. This approach will continue as enterprises continue to increase dependence on packaged software solutions; therefore, integration should be a key element of any product evaluation.
