An entire ecosystem that must be developed before another 64-bit processor can succeed and part of that system includes the major software vendors. After all, even if some hardware vendors were planning to build Opteron-based systems, it helps to know what software they could run on it. As it turns out, the software community is Opteron's ray of hope. For starters, both Windows and Linux will support Opteron's 64-bit mode. Of the two, Linux will probably be available first. But on the application side, support for Opteron was mixed so far.

BEA
BEA is one of the first software vendors to publicly get behind Intel's Itanium 2 in a major way. I spoke with BEA product marketing director John Kiger to see if that interest might extend to Opteron. The company's flagship product--WebLogic--is Java-based. Therefore, it only requires a J2EE-based Java Virtual Machine and has no specific dependencies on the operating system or processor. But BEA also makes a J2EE-based virtual machine (JRocket) that has dependencies on the operating system, and it would have to be redeveloped for Opteron.

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According to Kiger, "BEA has partnered with Intel extensively so that together, we can offer optimized solutions that run on the Intel architectures. We have not looked at what it might take to implement JRocket on the AMD architecture." While that's not a "yes," I'll be fair and say that's not a "no" either. The partnership with Intel seems a bit too cozy for BEA to warm up to AMD any time soon.

IBM, again
While the hardware side of the company appears to pretty cold to the idea of building systems based on AMD's processors, the software division actually appears to be excited. The company is going to announce and demonstrate an Opteron-based version of its DB2 database for Linux at next month's LinuxWorld. IBM spokesperson Sean Tetpon told me that "one of DB2's unique selling points is the number of platforms it supports. It only took two days to port DB2 to Opteron on Linux. So we went ahead and did it using SuSE's distribution of Linux, which was tuned for Opteron, and we will be showcasing that solution at LinuxWorld."

As for the rest of IBM's software portfolio, which includes products like WebSphere (IBM's competitor to BEA's WebLogic) and the collaboration tools from Lotus, Tetpon says the company is looking into Opteron support but has nothing to announce DB2-style just yet.

Of course, even the announcement about DB2 begs an important question; "What system is it going to run on?" IBM itself doesn't have an Opteron-based system to run this on. Tetpon cited Newisys, a relatively unknown manufacturer that, judging by its Web site (www.newisys.com), is still in startup mode. Hmmm.

J.D. Edwards
According to Lenley Hensarling, J.D. Edwards' vice president of product marketing, "We don't have plans at this time for AMD's Opteron processor. Support for specific platforms is driven by customer demand within our target markets. If we see significant customer demand our position might change."

The more I hear the "customer-driven" answer, the more I realize that part of AMD's problem is the old chicken-and-egg conundrum. It's hard for customers to get excited about Opteron without first seeing some systems and software that run on it. But it's hard for systems and software vendors to get excited about Opteron without first seeing customer interest. This can't be a good situation for AMD.

Oracle
Oracle was a bit more evasive on the issue of Opteron. About all I could get was a quote from the company's platform alliances vice president Doug Kennedy. Says Kennedy, "Currently, work with AMD is at the R&D stage." That could mean "yes" but it could also mean "maybe." Unfortunately, after a week of trying, I was unable to get any more information about what that means.

It's not surprising to me that, in terms of software, the primary interest in Opteron is coming from the database community (Oracle and IBM's DB2) where 64 bits of addressable memory can really come in handy. If AMD's promise about performance vs. Itanium turns out to be true, then Opteron may find a home in the niche of high-performance databases

I'm skeptical at this point about Opteron servers. Until there are some verifiable benchmarks to show the price/performance benefits, and until I see at least one of the tier-one system vendors commit and there's more support from the software community, I remain unconvinced about the long-term prospects for Opteron as 64-bit server processor.

On the other hand, AMD has everything to gain and nothing to lose by betting that its 64-bit technology will garner interest at a time when other 64-bit technologies are dropping like flies. As long as AMD can keep Opteron's 32-bit performance and compatibility on par with Intel's 32-bit offerings while keeping a lid on its cost, Opteron should do well in the 32-bit market. Any traction for its 64-bit technologies will be icing on the cake. Also, AMD's mainstream processor business is but one of three major markets the company is active in. The company participates heavily in the flash memory and embedded systems markets.

Says AMD's Knox, "In terms of Opteron's importance to the company's future, it's definitely a strong piece of our future as we go forward. I wouldn't say it's a bet-the-company product. We also have the flash and embedded stuff. But it's an important piece of our story. We're betting our server on Opteron but not immediately on 64-bit. We think Opteron is well-poised for enterprises that want two, four, or eight processor systems."

What do you think? Can Opteron penetrate the 64-bit server market or does it have a huge uphill battle against other 64-bit architectures like IA-64, SPARC, and PowerPC? Let me know. TalkBack below, or write to me at david.berlind@cnet.com.

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