Judging by the presentation I received at TechXNY from AMD Computation Products Group Ed Ellett, AMD is on the verge of making a 64-bit server bet that so far appears to be a risky proposition.

There's no question in my mind that AMD's forthcoming Opteron processor (formerly code-named "Hammer") has innovative and groundbreaking technology. Without ever having tested the processor, the only attribute (and its chief selling point) that I can vouch for is the hybrid design that allows the chip to run 32- or 64-bit operating systems natively. Ellett claims this feature is extremely important to IT managers because it means they won't have to reinvest in new 64-bit machines (the way they'd have to if they stuck with Intel-based systems once they decide to start making the switch).

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Another reason AMD says Opteron should be the prime processor architecture (and one that I can't vouch for) is that, in its 32-bit mode, it will offer twice the performance of its Intel-based counterparts. In other words, one AMD processor could handle the equivalent workload of two closely rated XEON processors thereby affecting the overall costs of multiprocessor systems and the pay-by-the-processor licenses of enterprise applications like Oracle's. Whether this is true or not remains to be seen. So far, no independently run and audited benchmarks have been published.

But let's just assume that everything Ellett says is true. It's an impressive story. Unfortunately, as I told Ellett and his posse of AMDers, IT managers don't buy 64-bit processors--they buy 64-bit servers. What popular server vendors (tier one preferably) are going to make and sell Opteron-based servers? The answer to this question is the real indicator of whether Opteron is going to get any traction on the server side.

How do you actually get an Opteron server?
Don't get me wrong. I'm drinking the Opteron Kool-Aid. AMD's Opteron story rocks. If the Opteron's 32-bit price/performance is competitive, I have no doubt that it will get some decent traction--as AMD always has--in the desktop market where it will play under the Athlon name and maybe even in the 32-bit server market against Intel's Xeon. My only concern is how do you actually get an Opteron-based server? At the time of our meeting, Microsoft was the only tier-one hardware or software vendor (that I'd heard from) planning Opteron support. Microsoft announced that it would ship an Opteron-compliant release of the 64-bit Datacenter version of Window .Net Server, but the company has not committed to a date.

According to AMD spokesperson Whitney Otstott, "All of the tier-one server vendors have seen Opteron and are very interested." So, being the journalist that I am, my next request was rather obvious. "In that case, please give me the names and numbers of contacts at those tier-one vendors so that I can verify that interest." All I wanted to do was explain to our audience where they could buy AMD's technological marvel. AMD's response? "We can't. Nothing's been announced, so that's confidential."

I subsequently talked to Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Prudential Securities who upgraded AMD last month. Mosesmann was evasive when I asked about who he thought would adopt the Opteron. "I can't tell you who it was. But what I can tell you is that Dell has come out and publicly stated that they aren't going to use Itanium 2 and are looking very closely at the Opteron. So, you can connect the dots. AMD is doing well on the design win front, and it's becoming more evident that Hammer is gaining more momentum on both the desktop and server. If Dell were to use it, the stock could go to 20 or 30bucks. It's real technology from a real company. But I can't give you specifics in terms of who is looking at it. The top three for sure are looking at it as are all the traditional clone vendors."

No problem. I called the potential Opteron systems vendors myself. But since there are only three tier-one system vendors (Dell, HP, and IBM), I decided to expand my inquiry to include some major software vendors too. (My ad-hoc survey should in no way be considered exhaustive.)

Unlike AMD's other processors, the 64-bit Opteron is not 100-percent compatible with Intel chips. This means that all software that runs on Opteron will need to be redesigned and recompiled in the same way that software vendors must recompile their products for other non-Intel compatible processors like Alpha or SPARC. In other words, it will take a bit more effort than usual for a software vendor to support Opteron.

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