Bill Claybrook, Research Director, Aberdeen
Of course the other Linux distros scattered around the world want to compete with Red Hat.
This is not easy since Red Hat has tremendous brand recognition. The primary motivation for the creation of UnitedLinux is to help the companies--Caldera, Conectiva, SuSE, and TurboLinux--improve their revenue streams and this means competing with Red Hat and the other Linux distributors. Three of the Linux distributors--Caldera, SuSE, and TurboLinux--are generally considered to be among the big four distributors along with Red Hat. The formation of UnitedLinux makes sense for them for a number of reasons.
First, it reduces the participants' development costs. SuSE is generally considered to have one of the best, if not the best, engineering organizations among Linux distributors worldwide. And according to the UnitedLinux announcement, SuSE will be the system integrator and handle quality assurance for the development of UnitedLinux. I see this as a plus. Reducing Linux development costs permits the UnitedLinux distributors to allocate more funds for developing value-add, revenue-generating products for Linux.
Systems vendors like HP and IBM, along with some ISVs such as Computer Associates (CA), have relationships with most, if not all, of the big four Linux distributors. The creation of the UnitedLinux distribution will reduce their (HP, IBM, etc.) costs associated with supporting Linux distributions (from Caldera, SuSE, and TurboLinux). For a company like IBM this is significant because IBM has four platforms and multiple architectures. In addition, the porting efforts of ISVs like CA will be reduced because there are fewer distributions to port to. A direct benefit that systems vendors and ISVs receive via UnitedLinux is that SuSE has an internal software tool, referred to as AutoBuild, which greatly simplifies the porting of SuSE Linux to different hardware architectures. This tool will be available with UnitedLinux. AutoBuild has been used to reduce the efforts involved in porting SuSE Linux to IBM's eServer platforms. And because SuSE uses the same source code for all platforms, ISVs indirectly benefit from AutoBuild.
It is Aberdeen's perspective that the UnitedLinux partners, over time, will begin to distribute and promote each other's value-add products. Aside from reducing Linux distribution development costs, this may be the biggest upside for the UnitedLinux participants. And if more Linux distributors become UnitedLinux distributors, this aspect of UnitedLinux could easily become the most significant benefit. So far, however, UnitedLinux is only about a common distribution. Each of Caldera, Connectiva, SuSE, and TurboLinux still has its own individual, ongoing marketing and sales efforts.
Generally, UnitedLinux is a positive thing. It reduces the number of distributions, making systems vendors and ISVs happy. This should assist the movement of Linux into the enterprise. The real question, however, is "Will UnitedLinux result in significant contributions to the bottom line of the associated distributors?" We will likely not know until the end of 2003, since UnitedLinux is not scheduled to be available until the end of 2002.
It is Aberdeen's perspective that slowing down the Red Hat train is going to be very difficult. Red Hat is making a strong move into the enterprise with Red Hat Advanced Server and by developing relationships with most of the important ISVs. And let's not forget that Sun Linux will be available later this summer. The Linux market will be divided among Red Hat, Sun, and the UnitedLinux folks. Sun is the wild card here because they can be a very strong force in the Linux market--if they want to be. It is Aberdeen's perspective that Sun will become a strong force in the Linux market and that Red Hat (with its partners) and Sun will be formidable competitors. UnitedLinux's place in this market share game will be determined by how many of the other Linux distributors move over to UnitedLinux.
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