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Microsoft's iron-fisted control over the desktop indeed positions .Net as the only enterprise solution that could cover the entire corporate information stack and all end points. I don't think it's the only desktop effort, though. J2EE owns the corporate stack today, at least as far as the development of Web applications and integration legacy systems is concerned. And while you are right to point out that the J2EE crowd lacks a desktop strategy, I believe that Sun is trying to do with Open Office / Star Office and Mozilla exactly what Microsoft intends to do with Office XP. Too bad Evolution isn't likewise a crossover app. What a mistake. Sun could use a clean productivity sweep across the Win 32 API desktop. Your insight as to the incredible importance of the desktop cuts many ways. One way is that the desktop is uniquely positioned to perform as local connectivity and computation hub. The hub is also able to host rich application components and swarms of local data. This certainly solves the problem of the last mile, and IP addressing. The desktop is also the user interface to corporate information systems. Connecting and communicating with the corporate stack, or anyone else's stack, is today a fearful trek through the Win32 API. Tomorrow the trek is likely to be through the .Net API, as Microsoft migrates users over. So it comes as no s urprise that the first battle of the Internet Age was fought on the desktop, and it will probably be the scene of the final battle.But the failure of Netscape and Java to secure an API foothold on the Windows desktop might have just been a clumsy first assault. The second wave tries to accomplish the goals of the first assault, but uses very different tactics. Marc Andressen once observed, "An OS is nothing but a bag of APIs we write to." That of course was before he learned the hard way who was holding that bag. The threat Netscape and Java posed to Microsoft was that they would commoditize completely the Win32 API, launching a new layer of APIs that Web applications and services could write to--Web APIs that Microsoft didn't control. It is not the alternative systems like Linux that pose such a threat to Microsoft's desktop hegemony. It is the crossover applications (Java, Open Office, Mozilla, and The Gimp) that could give Chairman Bill a bad hair day he might never get over. Here the power is in embracing the Win32 API and porting its functionality cross platform. With that come an Open API component layer, a universal XML file format, and a meshing embrace of open standards, protocols and methods. Having successfully defended their territory, Microsoft will no doubt be able to launch a .Net knockoff of J2EE, one that will be able to approximate every Java / Linux / Solaris feature plus component-level connectivity to the desktop. As long as Microsoft can maintain control over the desktop, they have time to catch up and command any and all aspects of the corporate stack. The question is, can they maintain that control over the desktop? While it would seem that Microsoft is holding all the cards, I think Sun has come out swinging, with every intention of taking the desktop and harnessing it to serve in the J2EE alignment. I know Sun claims that the desktop is irrelevant, that billions of devices and endlessly rippling waves of undefined end points will continue to diminish its importance. But I think Sun's actions speak otherwise. Remember how shocked the world was when Netscape went open source? Looking back, I think we can say that Andressen and Company knew they were doomed. Yet, like some Obi-Wan Kenobi, they died smiling and smirking, knowing that as Darth Vader's light saber struck them down, a greater force would pass to the Luke Skywalkers of the world. And in the end, after much thrashing, the Emperor's doom would be sealed. They put the future of the Internet into the hands of the one force Microsoft can't stop, open source communities. Not surprisingly, Sun has done the same. The art of walking the high wire lies in the balance, and it's far too soon to tell if Sun's many alliances with open source communities will prove profitable. But some good arguments can be made that open source communities produce open standards. And open standards keep markets open. And as long as the marketplaces of informational systems remain open and beyond Microsoft's proprietary efforts, Sun has a shot. That said, I hope Scott McNealy misses your article. There's enough wrist-slashing going on without Sun rolling over, too. Point by point, for every element in the .Net strategy you disclose, there is an open source initiative now underway. That wouldn't matter much except for the fact that these initiatives have a foothold on the Windows desktop. That's the good news. Of course it goes without saying that most these same initiatives suffer from Unix disease. Need a blanket to fend off the cold? Here are the pieces, knit your own quilt. Interestingly Sun is not relying on "alternative systems" to pry loose the Microsoft grip. Their strategy has two primary components: engage open source communities, and concentrate on crossover applications as the foundation for developing a merged universal API. Embrace the Win32 API. Don't take it out. Because open source communities, not corporations, drive the crossover applications the normal Microsoft tactics used to defend the desktop do not apply. Unfortunately for Chairman Bill, the Java Community Process now includes open source Apache, with JBoss knocking loudly at the door. Open source has arrived in the JCP and there will be no backing out, even as J2EE providers head for the proprietary confines of a Microsoft WS-I. The barbarians have finally breached the walls of the last great corporate consortium, further complicating things in Redmond even as they gather up the corporate J2EE dregs with the WS-I. Interestingly, the Mozilla community has a similar relationship to AOL Netscape, as the Open Office.org community has to Sun's Star Office. Not a coincidence. The open source communities form a near impenetrable buffer for Sun. Even if it doesn't pay all that well, they at least get a taste of the action. Meanwhile, Microsoft can attack Sun and AOL all they want, but the open source communities are going to keep on plugging. The result of open sourcing crossover apps is that the Microsoft desktop is bleeding. The Win32 API is being depleted, and the depleters are immune to the upgrade treadmill that enables Microsoft to refresh and recharge its control of the API. The migration to .Net and XP has been slow. Sure IT budgets are tight. But reasons continue to pay for Microsoft's unending schemes are even scarcer. The Sun NetBeans for wrapping Open Office components and accessing them through Web services are ready to be deployed. Sure, Open Office.org has a ways to go before establishing any kind of critical mass on the desktop. But as a fully functional and componentized productivity suite, it offers both an open API and a universal XML file format for data, documents, and .svg vector graphics! And the price sure beats telling a coworker, trading partner, or client that they have to upgrade to Windows Office XP if they want to exchange with you. J2EE is close to having that same two-way connection to the desktop Microsoft will enjoy once the SharePoint Server is deployed. But will they wake up and smell the coffee? The way the JCP crowd ran for the WS-I proprietary standards trough, one would have to think that these guys are not going to catch on to the open source secret any time soon. Which leaves the future of the free world in the hands of those seriously afflicted with Unix disease. The Open Office.org NetBean model is already in place, ready to expose computation and visual interface components to network applications and services. The J2EE crowd has no idea what to do with this explosive possibility. Sun is embedding the iPlanet Application Server into Solaris. They see the open standards--commoditization writing on the wall. It's the curse of open source. Linux configurations routinely include Open Office.org, Evolution, MySQL, and Apache. It's not all that difficult to throw in JBoss. And while you're at it, why not throw in the open source ARS Digita Collaboration Server? No wonder the J2EE corporate crowd is running to the WS-I trough. The barbarians are swarming to scale the corporate stack, the desktops, and any and all end points they can find. So the J2EE crowd doesn't talk about it much. Sometimes I wonder whether Sun is the only one awake to the full implications of .Net. They are positioning themselves to out-.Net Microsoft, and they are not afraid in the least to align with open source communities to do it. The battle will be on the same desktop where Netscape and Java fell to the mighty sword of Redmond. Only this time the battle will be waged with new tactics. Hello, barbarians. Hello, open source communities. Gary Edwards
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