2001/02 META Trend: Storage-related costs will constitute 70%-80% of server purchases through 2004+, but as storage hardware prices (e.g., disks, controllers, interconnects) continue to decline 30%+/year ($10-$15/GB by 2003/04), emphasis will shift to storage software, storage-area networks (SANs), and services. By 2002/03, most storage traffic will be offloaded from application networks onto SANs, but interoperability and robust management tools will remain elusive through 2002/03.

2002/03 META Trend: As networked storage (e.g., SAN, NAS) matures by 2004/05, larger and more sophisticated implementations will drive the need for storage applications to become application and DBMS aware, which will expose immature storage-related security procedures. Through 2004, the value proposition and price emphasis will shift from hardware components to software and services, further separating and forming a storage operations discipline independent of DBMS, systems, and application network management.

We are updating our 2001/02 META Trend to indicate the continued expansion and maturation of the storage networking market that includes channel-attached storage (storage-area networks [SANs]), network-attached storage (NAS), as well as tape libraries and backup/recovery software that continue to be on the forefront of IT organization (ITO) initiatives.

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During 2000 and 2001, we saw organizations undertake initiatives to create a storage infrastructure--implementing operating-system-independent storage and networking storage (both SAN and NAS), removing direct ownership by a particular server (see SIS Deltas 838 and 839, 12 Jun 2000). Moreover, many backup/recovery architectures were updated taking advantage of the newer and more flexible Fibre Channel (FC) network. FC, being one of the key technologies enabling the storage network to proliferate, has seen rapid maturity regarding interoperability and management, but there are additional requirements before a ubiquitous network with effective storage management applied to heterogeneous networks (at server, switch, and storage tiers) is as mature as conventional IP-based local-area networks (LANs).

As networked storage (e.g., SAN, NAS) matures by 2004/05, larger and more sophisticated implementations will be commonplace. Larger customers have FC-based networks with 200-400 available ports for server and storage connectivity and will continue to increase the number of ports used. Consequently, management will become increasingly important, as will FC port density (64-256 ports) for directors and switches as the "core-to-edge" networking designs are implemented. It is also an important design consideration to realize that there will not be, with very few exceptions, a single FC network for all servers and storage. We believe, based on application requirements, management considerations (predictable performance, availability), as well as interoperability, there will be multiple networks analogous to IP subnets, but physically distinct.

Evolving storage operations
Through 2005, the value proposition and price emphasis will shift from hardware components to software and services. Because we expect hardware prices to continue to decline approximately 35% per year, many of the storage vendors will look to professional services (consulting and implementation) and software to maintain the higher margins most storage companies have posted in the past. As a result, we expect roles to evolve through 2005/06 regarding storage, networking, and systems management. We believe further separation and formation of a storage operations discipline independent of database management system (DBMS), systems, and application network management will occur. As the roles/responsibilities evolve, we believe there will also be many partnerships between traditional system management (performance, asset, workload), network management, and evolving storage management software products. We believe the first instantiation will be the storage operations group (detailed by META Group's data and media center of excellence) focusing on storage management up through the FC network (iSCSI-based networks when viable--2004/05) to the servers. It is the integration and application/DBMS-aware capabilities that will evolve through 2005/06 to yield viable products, via existing and future partnerships.

Interoperability and application-aware storage?
Interoperability (servers, switches, storage) has become a focal point for the major vendors, which limited some early adoption. Although it is generally accepted that mixed server, same switch/director, same storage is the norm, more leading-edge companies are experimenting with mixed server, same switch/director, mixed storage; however, this is limited to the top-tier storage providers (Compaq, EMC, HDS, IBM).

Moreover, we believe that during the next 24 months, ITOs will see significant development by storage vendors (both established and startup) that will begin to deliver application- and database-aware storage services. This is not an easy design goal, because it requires significant integration with the operating system, the host bus adapter (the connection from the server to the FC network), and the application/DBMS. We believe this will be more plausible in 2004/05; as a result, there will be limited insight (for particular operating systems) for top-tier applications and DBMSs (SAP, Exchange, and Oracle being among the first). Moreover, many of the virtualization strategies and products could compound the difficulties.

Although we expect significant advances in application-aware storage services, this will expose immature storage-related security procedures. Consequently, this should be a critical design criterion for implementations. It is important to note that FC-based SAN security considerations are new variations of the security considerations as corporate external security (application authentication, isolation, encryption, etc.). FC security must deal with authentication and permissions for using storage applications (e.g., replication), and adding/removing servers and switches in each of the domains (host, device, interconnect).

Bottom line: Organizations can expect significant advancements through 2003 with regard to interoperability and management. Moreover, through 2004/05, storage services will increasingly become application and DBMS aware.

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