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REALITY CHECK
When will IBM buy Sun?
Migrating Microsoft customers
By David Berlind
April 8, 2002
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Taking control of Java isn't the only thing IBM must do to marginalize Microsoft. IBM must make it easier for Microsoft's customers to migrate from Windows to Java. If Eclipse opens that door, then IBM's collaboration with Microsoft to form the Web Services Interoperability Organization (WS-I) and the interoperability standards it supports knocks that door down. As I point out in my investigative analysis, the circumstances under which Sun was issued a last-minute invitation to join the WS-I as a contributor (as opposed to board member) reek of hardball politics. Should Sun join without a board seat, the company's plans for Java could be dictated in part by the companies that license it: IBM, BEA, and Oracle. All are WS-I board members. Advantage: IBM.
Microsoft is probably happy to participate in anything that sticks it to Sun the way the WS-I could. But I wonder if Redmond sees IBM's interest in the WS-I the way I see it--as an interoperability standard that will allow IBM to marginalize Microsoft by easily migrating Microsoft's customers to IBM's Java-based solutions. Should control of Java, through purchase or donation to the open-source community, ever be wrested from Sun, IBM would surely be in the catbird seat. Talk about a deal with the devil.
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While IBM does what it can to keep Java's star shining brightly on its own terms, the company is also doing everything it can to dismantle the rest of Sun. The two companies are engaged in a bloodbath on the hardware front that has resulted in an increased share of the server market for IBM, at the expense of Sun, HP, and Compaq. (Sun vociferously debates the accuracy of IDC's figures.) The now merging HP and Compaq have each announced plans to discontinue their RISC technologies (PA-RISC and Alpha, respectively). IBM, however, is going full steam ahead with the PowerPC microprocessors that power the newest AIX-based enemy to Sun's Solaris and SPARC processors: Regatta.
Overall, the results for Sun, which is also embattled by Compaq, HP, and now Dell, are reflected in its stock price. As of this writing, Sun, which once traded in the 60s, was dangerously close to a three-year low.
Should Sun's $28 billion market capitalization decline any further, there's only one company that could absorb Sun with pocket change: IBM. In addition to putting IBM in control of its own destiny and giving it the IP and market presence needed to combat Microsoft, an IBM takeover of Sun would also turn the microprocessor battle against Intel into a two-horse race. If IBM makes its move, when will that be?
Should IBM buy Sun? Can IBM pull this off? Write to me at david.berlind@cnet.com, or share your thoughts in TalkBack.
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