META trend: Global 2000 organizations will have heterogeneous application environments indefinitely, but .Net share will increase to 30 percent of enterprise development projects as J2EE use stabilizes at 40 percent by 2004.

Enterprise software development (software that companies develop for use by significant numbers of users, or across multiple departments, business entities, or lines of business) represents a significant cost for IT organizations. Although long-term trends indicate a decline in the percentage of budget spent on software development, during the past few years this trend has been reversed, due to the need to create various Internet and extranet applications that implement unique approaches to customer and partner relationships. Most Global 2000 (G2000) organizations have been seeking a set of development technologies that will support their heterogeneous environment. During the past few years, Java has dominated this landscape for new development technology. That will change in 2002.

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During 2002, the .Net framework will be substantially fleshed out and become a reasonable alternative to Java development. During this period, strict cost controls and budget pressures will increase interest in developing on commodity hardware platforms and inexpensive infrastructure. There will also be a race to deliver application development tools that incorporate and simplify Web services development. Microsoft will lead this trend with Visual Studio.Net offerings, leaving many Java development environments to catch up. As 2003 approaches, the rate of new projects will increase as Web services adoption drives new application initiatives. During this time, Microsoft's .Net framework will capture an increasing share of new application initiatives. By 2004, Microsoft will have approximately 30 percent of the new enterprise application market, with Java stabilizing at 40 percent and the remaining ones using existing technologies (legacy, CORBA, etc.). By 2005-06, segmentation of the market will be well established, and there will be many alternative development frameworks and programming models built atop these two basic infrastructures (Java and .Net).

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