META Trend: Information availability requirements will dictate robust business continuance (BC) strategies based primarily on backup/recovery (B/R) implementations, with unified management but decentralized execution. By 2002/03, most data center BC plans will include Unix/NT applications. Through 2003/04 (as data volumes increase 200%-300%/year), users will reduce B/R windows using intelligent storage, highly parallel tape solutions, and Fibre Channel-based storage-area networks.

Although total data center facility and staff destruction remains a remote possibility, IT organizations (ITOs) have discovered significant vulnerabilities in their environments (e.g., single-site systems, inadequate off-site data storage). Because of the newfound emphasis on disaster preparedness, we believe 90% of Global 2000 (G2000) firms will be fully self-sufficient for all recovery contingencies, including disasters, by 2005/06. The preparedness will begin with adopting disk-based recovery mechanisms (2003-05) and include fully redundant data center operations/staff by 2005/06.

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A key enabler of this transition is the move to networked storage (e.g., storage-area networks [SANs] and network-attached storage [NAS]), which we believe will account for 70% of all storage by 2007/08. Network storage facilitates broad connectivity, which can be used for real-time remote replication. Networked storage, combined with bandwidth costs declining through 2005, will make remote operations widely affordable. In addition, storage virtualization (2003/04) will enable not only real-time, policy-driven replication, but also transparent recovery at remote sites as well. This transparency will include automated failure detection and re-routing of data traffic to the most available device.

Whereas we recommend a portfolio approach to IT management, data recovery should be included as a subcategory of the storage component. The basis for this recovery portfolio should be an assessment of the specific risks. This will include generalized risks (e.g., user error, system failure, fire) and regionalized risks (e.g., earthquakes, tornados, hurricanes). Whereas a 30-mile (50km) separation may be sufficient to protect data centers from loss due to tornado, it may be insufficient distance in hurricane-prone locales.

After categorizing the risks, ITOs should evaluate these risks relative to the application environment. Identifying critical applications obviously leads to the critical data. Here, storage resource management (SRM) tools can identify the data dependencies within the application environment (e.g., BMC Patrol SRM, CA BrightStor SRM). We recommend applications/data be divided into four categories as a best practice:

* Mission- and time-critical data
* Organizationally critical data (e.g., important data, but not time-sensitive)
* Non-critical data
* Remote/mobile data

Thereafter, recovery policies and technologies can be matched to the relative importance of the data and associated cost metrics. These policies establish the methodology and service-level requirements for each data category.

As business requirements become more stringent and data center operations more sophisticated, disaster recovery (DR) will become an extension of data recovery rather than a separate practice as it is now. By 2005, four-hour recovery will be considered a best practice for critical applications, and by 2008, transparent recovery will be the standard among G2000 organizations. For mission-critical applications, synchronous remote replication will be required to achieve this transparency level.

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