META Trend: Process automation (transaction, interactive, embedded, inter-enterprise, and application-specific) will become increasingly strategic for organizations, but will require multiple solutions (immature standards) through 2002. Consolidation--led by merging middleware/B2B integration vendors (second half of 2001)--will result in more comprehensive solutions by 2003 (including real-time business metrics and flexibility to address nonconforming transactions).
During 2001-02, all organizations--not just Global 2000 enterprises--that cannot measure across more than one business activity will fall behind and not know why. Initial excitement about e-business and supply chains (commerce chain management [CCM]) led to an over-investment in technology as companies sought first-mover advantage. Subsequently, the "dot-bomb" implosion made everyone second-guess.
During 2001-02, however, the reality lies somewhere between irrational exuberance and depression, as we acknowledge that commerce chain excellence is a journey--not a destination. Key to supply chain and product life-cycle success is the realization that these subjects will constantly evolve. Specifically, by 2003-04, dimensions of offerings (products and/or service) and chains will drastically evolve, including business and process change, application change, and new technologies, metrics, service levels, and people. By 2004-05, the underlying "Web services" of customer relationship management, supply chain management (SCM), partner relationship management, et al. will agglomerate into a porous set of "XRM" infrastructure and business flow services.
The e-business "marketplace" will drive enterprises to scan the entire value chain for priorities--with a near-term focus on those that can be justified and readily accomplished. Each individual area is still relevant, albeit not in the same way as in 2000 (e.g., sourcing vs. procurement, B2B vs. B2C sell side, private vs. public Net markets). Integration across these CCM areas is still rare for both users and vendors, and as a result, priorities require reevaluation for justification and ability to implement.
