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Tech Update 
The art of online merchandising
A formula for product recommendations
By Melissa Pennings, Creative Good consultant
E-Business
June 26, 2000


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In past client work, Creative Good has developed an algorithm that calculates, with relatively limited data, the best products to recommend to each customer. By selecting the most appropriate products, the promotions are then targeted to the right customers, at the right time. It's also much easier to develop occasion-based sales scenarios around the products, once a company has done the work to create the merchandising algorithm. Below we outline the steps to create the algorithm:

Step 1: The most important step is to identify those success criteria that will help you make a decision about whether to include a certain product or, in the case of occasion-based promotions, a certain occasion. These decision criteria must be aligned with the overall goals of the merchandising strategy. For example, do the products promoted:

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Arrow appeal to target customers?
Arrow aid with overstock clearance?
Arrow optimize margins?
Arrow introduce new products or new product categories?
Arrow increase average order size (such as through multiple product bundles)?
Arrow aid with load balancing (i.e., promote orders at a certain time of day or week)?
Arrow conform with typical customer purchases (based on transaction data)?

Step 2: Check to ensure that you have data to support each decision criterion. For example, to test whether there is appeal to target customers, you might refer to demographic or psychographic information or you might use survey data if it is available.

If there's not enough quantitative data available, you can rely on qualitative data. For example, you can use your industry knowledge and common sense to decide whether a certain product would promote orders during the week rather than the weekend.

Step 3: Assign each criterion chosen a relative weight in percentage terms. For example, if a primary company strategy is to attract a different customer segment, the "target customer appeal" criterion may be weighted more heavily than whether the products "conform with typical customer purchases."

Step 4: Construct an analytical model that can evaluate each product (or occasion) using the criteria identified; rank how well each will meet the company's merchandising goals.

Step 5: Launch the algorithm. Run various promotions on the site, using the merchandising algorithm to choose which products (or occasions) to use within each promotion.

Step 6: Once the algorithm is running, test its effectiveness by tracking customer usage. Because of the Internet's unique ability to allow real-time product adjustments (pricing, placement, etc.), it has an advantage over the offline retail environment. Track changes in conversion rate, average order size and sales by category.

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1. The art of online merchandising
2. A formula for product recommendations
3. The algorithm in action: A hypothetical example





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